Earlier this year, three aircraft accidents occurred within just eight days. I remember scrolling through Facebook and seeing a flurry of anxious posts, with many people asking, “What is happening in the skies?!” The timing couldn’t have been worse – I had a flight scheduled to San Francisco the very next day, and all this chatter about flying being “more dangerous than we realized” left me feeling uneasy.
Should I have been concerned? Is it unusual for three planes to crash in such a short span of time, enough to make us think that flying is becoming riskier? According to Dr. Thomas Larkin, a renowned expert in the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge University, the answer is no. While it may seem improbable, statistical data reveals that the likelihood of this happening at least once in a decade is actually quite high – around sixty percent, more likely than not.
What Does True Randomness Look Like?
The reality is that true randomness doesn’t manifest in the way we often expect. Genuine random events tend to create clusters; think of stars scattered across the night sky that naturally form groups. Similarly, if plane crashes are random occurrences over a decade, it’s entirely possible for two or three to happen relatively close together in time. When Apple first introduced the iPod Shuffle, users complained that the “random shuffle” function wasn’t random enough, as they would sometimes hear the same song played twice in a row. Interestingly, Apple’s error was that they had programmed it to be truly random, meaning it didn’t consider whether a song had been played recently. They eventually tweaked the feature to create the illusion of randomness, showing how our perceptions can be quite misleading.
Why We Struggle to Recognize Randomness
The anxious Facebook posts highlight more about human psychology than the dangers of air travel. Why do we often fail to recognize true randomness? Why do we tend to see patterns and clusters and suspect that something suspicious is at play? A significant part of the issue lies in our inherent tendency to search for patterns, even where none exist. Our brains also have a natural inclination to attribute agency to events, leading us to believe that random occurrences must be orchestrated by someone or something.
There’s a compelling evolutionary perspective on why we developed this inclination. Imagine living thousands of years ago and hearing rustling in the bushes nearby. It could be a predator or merely the wind. If you panic and run, only to find out it was just the wind – or worse, a prank by a fellow cave dweller – you might feel foolish. Conversely, if you choose to stay calm and it turns out to be a predator, well, the outcome could be dire. Clearly, those who were more cautious would have been more likely to survive and pass down their genes.
Another reason we tend to overlook randomness is that we focus on individual clusters while ignoring the broader context in which they occur. For example, if you roll a die five times and get five sixes consecutively, it’s shocking. However, if you roll that die a thousand times, getting five sixes at some point becomes less surprising. If your approach to dating involves randomly selecting a person from the street and you immediately find someone compatible, it’s easy to believe in fate. Yet, if your journey includes several awkward encounters before finding that ideal match, the odds become clearer. The focus on patterns, like a string of sixes or a perfect match, can obscure the vast number of experiences that led to those moments.
It’s understandable that this tendency to perceive clusters and seek explanations for random events was useful in a more dangerous, predator-filled environment. However, in modern times, this inclination can lead to unnecessary fears. For instance, my own anxiety about flying that day was far more pronounced than warranted.
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Summary
In summary, our brains are wired to seek patterns even in random events, which can lead to misinterpretations of risk and causality. As we navigate modern life, it’s essential to recognize these tendencies and understand that randomness can often yield surprising clusters. This awareness can help us manage our fears more effectively, especially regarding things like flying.