In July of this year, three planes crashed within just eight days. I vividly recall the flood of anxious Facebook posts following the third incident, with people expressing sentiments like, “What’s happening in the skies?!” It couldn’t have come at a worse time – I was set to fly to San Francisco the very next day, and the discussions around flying being “more dangerous than we thought” were making me quite uneasy.
Should I have been concerned? Is it unusual enough for three plane crashes to occur in such a short span that we should assume flying is riskier? According to Dr. Mark Thompson, a leading expert in risk assessment, the answer is no. While three plane crashes in eight days may seem improbable, statistical analysis indicates that such an occurrence is actually quite common over any given ten-year period – approximately a 60% chance, which is surprisingly more likely than not.
Understanding True Randomness
The reality is, true randomness doesn’t conform to our expectations of it. In genuinely random events, clusters will emerge. Just as stars dispersed in the night sky often form constellations, random plane crashes can occasionally happen in close succession. When Apple launched the iPod Shuffle, users complained that the “random shuffle” feature wasn’t random enough – they would sometimes hear the same song play twice in a row. The irony was that Apple had designed their shuffle to be completely random, leading to repeated songs. They eventually adjusted the feature to create an illusion of randomness that felt more satisfying to users.
Our Struggles with Recognizing Randomness
Those worried Facebook posts reveal more about human psychology than they do about the safety of flying. Why do we struggle to recognize true randomness? Why do we perceive patterns and clusters and assume they must have a deeper cause? One reason is that our brains are hardwired to seek patterns, even where none exist. We also tend to attribute intent to random events, believing that they must be orchestrated by some unseen force.
There’s a compelling evolutionary explanation for this inclination. Imagine living in a time when a rustle in the bushes could indicate a predator. If you flee out of caution and it turns out to be harmless, you might feel foolish. Conversely, if you choose to stay put and it turns out to be a threat, you could face dire consequences. Clearly, those who err on the side of caution are more likely to survive and pass on their genes.
Another factor that clouds our perception of randomness is our focus on clusters while ignoring the broader context. For example, rolling a die five times and getting five sixes is astonishing. However, if you roll it a thousand times, achieving five sixes at some point becomes less surprising. Similarly, if you randomly approach someone on the street and find a perfect match immediately, it feels like fate. In reality, it’s statistically inevitable that you would eventually encounter someone you connect with.
Humans have likely evolved to notice clusters in randomness, crafting explanations for events that are truly random. This instinct may have served us well in a world filled with predators, but it can lead to unnecessary anxiety in contemporary life. It certainly made me more apprehensive about flying that day than I needed to be.
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Summary
Our tendency to see patterns in randomness stems from evolutionary psychology. While this instinct was beneficial in our ancestral past for survival, it can cause unnecessary worry in modern life, such as fearing flying after a few plane crashes. Understanding randomness better can help alleviate some of this anxiety.