On October 28, 2020, the United States witnessed a staggering report of 81,000 COVID-19 cases in a single day, culminating in an alarming total of 500,000 cases over the course of a week. These figures are sobering and warrant reflection. They underscore that nearly a year into this pandemic, we have yet to gain control over the virus. In fact, we are now facing a significant third wave, which experts predict will be the most extensive and prolonged surge to date.
To explore the implications of these statistics on a local and national scale, particularly with the cold weather and holiday season approaching, a panel of experts from organizations like COVIDEXITSTRATEGY.org, Resolve To Save Lives, and the Duke-Margolis Center for Health Policy recently conducted a webinar. Here are the key takeaways.
We Are in a Third Wave—And It’s Not Just Due to Increased Testing
It is clear that we are experiencing a third wave of the pandemic. According to Dr. Sarah Jenkins from COVID Act Now, “We are reaching levels comparable to COVID’s peak in July.” While increased testing has led to a rise in detected cases, it is not the sole reason for the surge. Dr. Tom Rivera from Resolve to Save Lives pointed out that we are likely identifying only one in five infected individuals. In other words, if testing were cut in half, the number of infections would remain unchanged and likely worsen.
To illustrate this, Rivera compared the situation to wildfires: more smoke detectors (tests) may identify more fires, but the fires (infections) continue to burn regardless. The goal of testing is to pinpoint the problem areas so that we can mitigate the impact.
The Third Wave is Affecting Rural Areas More Than Before
There is a misconception that COVID-19 primarily affects urban and coastal regions. Initially, that was accurate, as cities like New York and Los Angeles faced the brunt of the outbreak. However, many states that were previously less affected are now experiencing significant surges. For instance, states like South Dakota, North Dakota, and Wyoming are reporting record numbers—over 500 cases per million. This shift is concerning, especially since rural areas often have older populations with higher hospitalization risks and limited access to healthcare services.
Testing Variability Affects Interpretation of Case Numbers
Not all states are testing equally, which complicates the interpretation of case numbers. Dr. Rivera noted that some states conduct five to ten times more tests than others, skewing the perception of outbreak severity. For example, while North Dakota may show alarming case numbers, Mississippi, which conducts fewer tests, could be in a more dire situation when adjusted for testing rates.
Mask Mandates are Effective, but We Need Clear Messaging
Despite the rising case numbers and a perceived lack of governmental action, we have tools to combat the virus—most notably, masks. A study from the Vanderbilt School of Medicine indicated that areas with mask mandates experience fewer hospitalizations compared to those without such mandates. Masking is not only effective but also less disruptive than social distancing measures that may require targeted shutdowns.
A Silver Lining Amidst the Numbers
While the statistics can be daunting, there is a positive aspect to consider—the infection growth rate. This metric indicates how fast the virus spreads. As of the webinar, only Kansas was not experiencing an increase in COVID-19 cases, while most other states had growth rates slightly above one, meaning each infected individual is, on average, infecting just one other person. This presents an opportunity for improvement and control.
With the holiday season approaching and colder weather compelling people indoors, it is crucial to adhere to the 3Ws: Wear a mask, wash your hands, and watch your distance.
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Summary:
The United States is currently facing a significant third wave of COVID-19, with rising case numbers particularly in rural areas. Increased testing has led to more detected cases, but the actual infection rates remain high. Experts emphasize the importance of mask mandates and social distancing to mitigate the spread, especially with colder weather approaching. The infection growth rate shows slight optimism, suggesting that each infected person is only transmitting the virus to one other person, indicating room for improvement in controlling the situation.