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This Tool Allows You to Assess COVID Risk in Your Area Instantly
by Alex Turner
November 12, 2020
How likely is it that someone at your Thanksgiving gathering will be carrying COVID? This tool might provide some insight.
It’s safe to state that the U.S. is currently struggling to manage COVID-19 effectively. Daily new infections have surged past 100,000, with over 1,000 fatalities occurring each day. Many hospitals are experiencing critical shortages of ICU beds. This alarming rise in cases comes just before Thanksgiving, a time when nearly 40 percent of Americans still intend to travel, despite the ongoing health crisis.
With the rapid increase in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths looming over the holiday season, you may be curious about the safety of your Thanksgiving and Christmas gatherings. Fortunately, a new tool can help you gauge that risk.
Researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology have developed a “COVID-19 Risk Assessment Planning Tool.” This interactive map allows users to select any U.S. county and specify a group size to determine the likelihood that someone in that gathering might be infected with COVID-19.
For instance, if you plan to attend a 50-person wedding in Portland, Oregon, selecting that group size and hovering over Multnomah County reveals a 41 percent chance that an attendee will have COVID-19.
If you’re considering a 10-person Thanksgiving dinner in Chicago, adjusting the group size to 10 and focusing on Cook County shows there’s a 29 percent chance that someone in that group will be infected, based on local case counts.
This tool can estimate the relative risk for virtually any event size in any part of the country. It calculates risk in real-time using COVID data from across the U.S. However, it can only provide risk levels for activities and cannot determine if a gathering is too risky to attend—that decision is ultimately yours.
“In a way, it’s like a weather forecast,” said Mia Reynolds, a professor in urban and regional planning at Georgia Tech who contributed to the tool’s development. “It can indicate the likelihood of rain, but it can’t tell you if you’ll get soaked. That depends on whether you bring an umbrella, or if you decide to stay indoors.”
Hopefully, this tool will help clarify the situation for those contemplating holiday travel this year. The current circumstances are significantly worse than in the spring when lockdowns were in place, or even over the summer when a troubling second wave led to numerous fatalities.
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Summary:
A new tool from Georgia Tech enables users to assess the risk of COVID-19 at gatherings by selecting a county and group size. By using real-time data, the tool provides insights into the likelihood of infection, helping individuals make informed decisions about attending holiday events.