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On April 6, Toronto, Canada’s largest city, announced an immediate two-week suspension of in-person learning due to a spike in COVID-19 cases. This decision impacts over 300,000 students across elementary and secondary schools, including those in private institutions. The earliest possible return to classrooms is April 18.
The closure was declared on a day when Toronto recorded 955 new COVID-19 cases. The Toronto Public Health (TPH) emphasized that “the spread of COVID-19 has never been greater in Toronto, with variants of concern heightening both transmission risk and the likelihood of severe illness or death.”
Health Officials Attribute the Surge to Variants
Dr. Emily Chen, Toronto’s Medical Officer of Health, attributed the decision largely to the variants circulating throughout Canada. The B.1.1.7 variant, first detected in the UK, has “likely supplanted the original virus in certain areas,” as noted by Dr. Samuel Lee, Canada’s chief public health officer. Additionally, cases of the P.1 variant have nearly doubled, especially in British Columbia and Ontario.
In a recent interview, Dr. Chen confirmed that the high transmissibility of these variants was a significant factor in the decision to close schools. “They spread more quickly, increasing the risk,” she stated. “Thus, we had no option but to take this action.”
Shutdown Aimed at Curbing Community Spread
The decision to close schools came after a consistent rise in COVID-19 cases that are placing a “heavy strain on the health system in numerous regions.” Hospitalizations have risen by 4% from the previous week, while ICU admissions increased by 18%. A larger proportion of those requiring treatment are younger adults. “This serves as a reminder that COVID-19 can affect individuals of all ages, and serious illness can occur at any age,” Dr. Lee remarked.
TPH recognized the importance of in-person education, asserting that schools should be the first to reopen and the last to close. However, they acknowledged that current circumstances necessitate difficult local decisions to safeguard everyone in the school community.
U.S. Schools Face Similar Variant Challenges
Dr. Laura Jenkins, director of the CDC, confirmed that the B.1.1.7 variant accounts for most new COVID-19 infections in the U.S., which could pose risks for American schools. Dr. Robert Thompson, Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research at a Minnesota university, who previously supported in-person schooling, has reconsidered his stance due to the B.1.1.7 variant. He suggested the possibility of school closures during a recent segment on “Meet The Press,” noting that 749 schools in Minnesota reported cases of this variant.
Dr. Thompson highlighted, “Unlike earlier strains, we observed fewer infections among younger children. However, B.1.1.7 changes that dynamic, as these children now represent significant transmission risks.”
In Michigan, where the pandemic’s impact has surged recently, school outbreaks increased by 23% in just one week and by 47% over two weeks. Outbreaks linked to schools rose from 241 to 296 in the same timeframe. Ingham County Health Officer Rebecca Niles expressed her deep concern over rising positivity rates and hospitalizations. Despite escalating case numbers, Michigan schools have yet to close, having previously done so in November when numbers were lower.
Similarly, a North Carolina elementary school temporarily shifted to remote learning after more than 100 students, or over 19% of its population, were required to quarantine.
Given these circumstances, it is plausible that U.S. schools may also transition to remote learning, similar to Toronto.
Vaccination Rates: A Key Difference
While noting the increasing cases in Michigan, Niles expressed optimism regarding vaccination rates. “We are at a turning point in the pandemic.” Approximately one-third of the U.S. population has received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, while Canada has only managed to vaccinate around 12% of its population as of late March.
Although children under 16 are not yet eligible for vaccination, higher adult vaccination rates can reduce community transmission, ultimately protecting unvaccinated children. However, this may not be sufficient to avert another surge or further school closures. With rising case numbers and the prevalence of a highly transmissible variant, U.S. schools could follow Toronto’s lead, despite effective vaccine distribution. The coming days and weeks will be critical in determining these decisions. In the meantime, adhering to mask mandates, practicing social distancing, and getting vaccinated when eligible remains essential.
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Summary
The rapid spread of the B.1.1.7 variant in Canada has led to the closure of schools in Toronto, affecting over 300,000 students, as health officials respond to increasing COVID-19 cases. Similar concerns regarding variants are emerging in U.S. schools, prompting discussions about potential closures. While vaccination rates differ significantly between Canada and the U.S., the situation remains precarious, highlighting the importance of continued public health measures.