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The latest news hit last Friday: the Israeli Health Ministry announced that while preliminary data suggests the Pfizer vaccine still protects against severe illness and hospitalization from the Delta variant, its efficacy in preventing infection has plummeted to just 39%, a steep drop from 95% earlier this year. I was scrolling through my emails when I saw the report. I had to stop and read it twice, and then I completely panicked.
There are some important points that should keep us from overreacting: that 39% efficacy was measured over just two weeks, from June 20 to July 17; the study was small and hasn’t been peer-reviewed; even Dr. David Rosen, a leading expert on the advisory panel in Israel, mentioned to The New York Times that “the difficulties in making precise estimates of vaccine effectiveness are significant.” Also, this statistic doesn’t mean that 61% of vaccinated individuals contracted COVID-19. It only means that vaccinated individuals are now 39% less likely to get COVID compared to those who are unvaccinated, rather than 95% less likely, like before.
But still… Delta.
Delta is More Contagious
Pfizer is an mRNA vaccine: it works by introducing messenger RNA into the body, which instructs cells to create a spike protein that the immune system identifies as a threat. This process generates antibodies, leading to COVID immunity. However, the Delta variant has mutations in its spike protein that may reduce vaccine effectiveness. If one mRNA vaccine has a 39% efficacy rate, I fear that the same may apply to Moderna, the other mRNA vaccine— the one I received. Time to hit the panic button.
But that’s not all. According to National Geographic, the Delta variant’s spike protein has mutations that alter how it interacts with human cells, such as lung cells, making it easier for the virus to infect people. In simpler terms, Delta spreads much more easily. The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, a group of researchers collaborating with the CDC, predicts that U.S. COVID cases will rise steadily, possibly peaking in mid-October with at least triple the current deaths. Worst-case scenarios could make the situation nearly as dire as last winter, depending on vaccination rates and public health measures like masking and distancing, as reported by NPR.
I live in a state where public health efforts are lacking. Vaccine rates are stagnant, and there will be no effective mitigation strategies. I know parents who hosted maskless pool parties back in June 2020. Will the Delta variant change their minds about getting vaccinated or wearing masks? No. It won’t.
But you might say, “Look at the data! The Pfizer vaccine is still estimated to be 91.4% effective at preventing severe illness!” That’s great, but I’m not worried about my husband or myself catching asymptomatic Delta. My concern lies with my three unvaccinated sons, who have no defense against COVID-19.
Lockdown Time
I have been fiercely protective as a mother throughout this pandemic since last March, and I’m not about to stop now. As of July 21, the Delta variant accounted for more than 83% of COVID cases in the U.S., up from only 30% a month prior. Dr. Sarah Lin, a pediatric expert, stated, “This variant is spreading rapidly… We are particularly worried about children under 12 who currently cannot access the vaccine.”
Even if evidence shows Delta isn’t more dangerous to kids than other variants, my anxiety remains. “If more kids get infected, we should expect to see more severe cases,” said Dr. Amanda Thompson, an epidemiologist.
Law of averages, right?
Moreover, the American Academy of Pediatrics still recommends that children wear masks outdoors. My kids wear masks outside, but none of the other kids in our neighborhood do. So, my children have limited playmates again. I grapple with questions: Should I let them play with kids who go to school or camp but wear masks? Should they only play outside and be masked? If Delta is significantly more transmissible, should I rethink my decisions?
What about kids who stay home, with vaccinated parents who work outside? Should I be concerned about breakthrough cases with a 39% efficacy rate? My sons’ friend’s mother works at a university, a hotspot for infection—of course, she got vaccinated first and wears a mask.
But my husband teaches high school. He’ll wear a mask and implement the best ventilation strategies, but he’ll still be in a classroom full of unvaccinated students. I’m stressed, feeling like I’m back in October 2020.
Back to sanitizing everything. Back to feeling anxious about going out. My eleven-year-old had a great time at the bookstore last week. Now, I’m upset thinking he won’t go there again for months. I took my youngest to a local general store for candy, and he was thrilled to pick jellybeans for his brothers, but we’re back in lockdown. How do I explain this to my children?
I know severe cases in kids are uncommon, but we recently dealt with croup, and they were very ill. I can’t risk them catching the Delta variant. I’ve worked too hard for their safety.
Before, we were hopeful for a vaccine. Now, I’m pinning my hopes on a vaccine for children. I hope it comes soon, so I can stop living in anxiety—again. Until then, we’re staying inside.
This article was originally published on July 28, 2021.
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Summary:
As concerns rise about the Delta variant, a mother reflects on the impact of new data regarding vaccine effectiveness and transmissibility. With growing anxiety about her unvaccinated children, she decides to reimplement lockdown measures at home to keep her family safe. The article emphasizes the ongoing challenges of navigating parenting during the pandemic and the need for continued vigilance.